Cross posted on RK

It's great to see Jim Webb, a man with a great deal more foreign policy knowledge and wisdom than John McSame, call out Hothead McSame for his bellicose comments on the Russia-Georgia situation:

I just got off the phone with DNC Chairman, Gov. Howard Dean, who I had a chance to interview one-on-one as his "Register for Change" bus tour comes rolling through northern Virginia tomorrow (Saturday).  I didn't record the interview, so here's a rough transcript of my questions and Gov. Dean's answers. (Note: thanks to Gov. Dean for taking some time to speak with RK, and I encourage everyone to help with Gov. Dean's voter registration drive!)

[Note: originally posted on RK.]

After all the foreign policy disasters, damage to our national security and international reputation the past 7 1/2 years, is there anyone who still believes that Republicans are "strong on foreign policy?"  If so, what cave are they living in and what med's are they taking?  For the latest exhibit of "heckuva job" foreign policy incompetence by the GOP, take Georgia - or, more to the point, let RUSSIA take Georgia after "egging on" the Georgians in the first place.

This weekend, I was talking to one of the smartest people I know on energy issues, and I thought he made some great points.  Before you read them, keep in mind that they are NOT conventional "wisdom," or what passes for "wisdom" these days. That, of course, does NOT mean the analysis is wrong; to the contrary, I believe it's right on the money. I also believe that almost everything we're hearing from our politicians and from the media today regarding energy issues is either completely wrong, highly distorted, pandering pabulum (or all of the above).  Now, let me tell you how I REALLY feel! :)

I was reading commentary on Ted Stevens intertubes the blogs about Barack Obama's "shift" on offshore oil drilling, and it got me to wondering: would a compromise on this issue, as part of a real, comprehensive energy plan (including "Apollo project" for kicking our oil addiction once and for all) be smart policy?  And is talking about in this way, at this time, smart politics for Barack Obama?

First, let's talk policy. As we've discussed many times before, and as the experts have said, "Expanded offshore drilling in the U.S. won't affect oil and natural-gas prices much."  Heck, even the American Petroleum Institute says that "it could take anywhere from five to 10 years for production to begin" offshore, once moratoria are lifted.  In other words, there will be no direct impact on oil prices from offshore drilling for 5-10 years.  So much for that idea.

Courtesy of former Clinton Energy Department official Joseph Romm on Gristmill:

...lifting the moratorium on coastal drilling can't possibly reduce gasoline prices. After all, two years ago, we opened most of the Gulf of Mexico -- with its estimated 41 billion barrels of oil -- and oil prices then doubled.

D'oh...those pesky "facts" again. Ha. :)

On May 15, I received the results of a 2nd CD poll by Bennett, Petts & Normington. The bottom line of it is that Rep. Thelma "Karl Rove" Drake is in big, big trouble. Check out some of these findings:

*Drake has 95% name recognition, but only 40% would vote to re-elect her.  In short, almost all 2nd CD voters know Thelma Drake, yet they want to get rid of her. That's not what you want to hear when you're an incumbent, that's for sure.

*Glenn Nye, her Democratic opponent, has only 9% name recognition yet trails Drake by just 48%-32%.

*All that's not bad, but THIS is stunning!

As a long-time world energy markets analyst (for the U.S. Energy Information Administration), I usually brace myself for a stream of inaccuracy and idiocy whenever I see or hear an oil story on TV (god help us), radio (not much better), or a corporate newspaper (usually riddled with inaccuracies, misstatements, etc.). Which is why I was pleasantly surprised this morning as I read an accurate, intelligent, well-written oil article in the Washington Post.  

UPDATE: By the way, the Post article today turns out to be the first in what will be a series on oil.  Sure beats their 12-part infotainment series on Chandra Levy!

UPDATE #2: I just noticed this excellent article on energy efficiency by Joseph Romm. "The limitless resource" - that pretty much covers it.  Energy efficiency IS the answer.

5 years and 1 day ago my life changed. It was July 7, 2003, and I was getting back into politics after a long period where I followed it but wasn't really involved. A big part of the reason for my re-engagement was where I saw George W. Bush taking the country - off the cliff, in my opinion - after he had been "selected" by the Supreme Court as president in the hotly disputed 2000 election against Al Gore. Almost immediately, it became apparent that Bush would NOT keep his promises to govern as "compassionate conservative," a "reformer with results," etc. It became obvious that he would NOT run a "humble" foreign policy.  And it became depressingly clear that Bush would not "change the tone in Washington" for the better, only for the (far) worse.  

According to the CNN Political Market, Jim Webb now trails only "Other" in response to the question, "Who will Obama choose as his VP nominee?"  Right now, it's:

Dick Cheney has apologized for an inbreeding joke about West Virginia.  That's wonderful.  The problem is, how about all the things Cheney has NOT apologized for?  Like...

Gotta love the headline, gotta love this:

I just received the results of a new Virginia 2nd CD poll by Bennett, Petts & Normington.  The bottom line of it is that Rep. Thelma Drake is in big, big trouble.  Check out some of these findings:

*Drake has 95% name recognition, but only 40% would vote to re-elect her.  In short, almost all 2nd CD voters know Thelma Drake, yet they want to get rid of her. That's not what you want to hear when you're an incumbent, that's for sure.

I just received this from "Green Miles" Grant at the National Wildlife Federation:

UPDATE: I hear that Deputy Secretary of the Interior Lynn Scarlett will host a conference call TODAY at 3:45 pm to discuss Secretary Kempthorne's major announcement on the status of the polar bear. Looks like Kempthorne's deputy is doing his dirty work for him. Cowards.

Back in March 2005, when I was still working as an international oil markets analyst at the US Energy Information Administration (and  oil prices were about $50 per barrel), Goldman Sachs came out with its first "super spike" analysis.

UPDATE: My former colleagues at EIA are out with their latest short-term forecast.  As usual, they've got prices falling back slightly in coming years ("WTI crude oil prices, which averaged $72 per barrel in 2007, are projected to average $110 per barrel in 2008 and $103 per barrel in 2009."), mainly because of a tendency to believe that high oil prices will result in slowing demand and also a supply response.  We'll see, but honestly I've got to go more with Goldman Sachs on this one, as I see the supply curve as close to vertical and demand in places like China and India responding much more to income elasticity than price elasticity.

Finally, there's someone with a brain on gasoline prices.  No, it's certainly not John McCain or Hillary Clinton, both of whom have resorted to the most pitiful pandering imaginable (Clinton actually says she'll "sue OPEC for not producing oil from wells they haven’t drilled yet" - bwahahahahah!).  No, the voice of rationality doesn't come from a politician at all, but from a Hill staffer named Bill Wicker, spokesperson for the Senate Committee on Energy and Natural Resources.

The following is transcribed from Sen. McGovern's speech Saturday night at the McGovern Day dinner in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.  Great work by Tyler at Badlands Blue for all the great videos!

I just received a fundraising email from John McCain which I would have thought came from "The Onion" if it didn't say "Paid for by John McCain 2008 and John McCain 2008 General Election Compliance Fund" at the bottom.  I mean, this guy can't possibly be serious, right?  First, he offers this heroic pledge:

Whether it's the economy, the struggle against radical Islamic extremism or national security issues, I stand ready to offer bold solutions to our nation's challenges.